East Front News #28: Western Troops in Ukraine; Baltic Sentry; Shotguns at Border

Western Troops in Ukraine?

The topic of deploying allied forces on Ukrainian territory as part of a peacekeeping mission has once again returned to public debate. The governments in Paris and London are reportedly the most engaged in this discussion, preparing for three potential scenarios: a ceasefire along the current front line (allowing Russia to retain occupied territories), the deployment of Western troops in Kyiv to defend the capital from attacks, and training the Ukrainian army while establishing a protective shield over Polish territory. President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer have reportedly already discussed the mission with President Zelensky, President-elect Trump, and Prime Minister Tusk. This issue is expected to gain momentum in the near future, particularly after Donald Trump takes office. The future U.S. leader has repeatedly declared his intention to end the war in Ukraine swiftly, which may imply that Americans will negotiate with a firm hand, potentially pressuring both Kyiv and Moscow into talks. 

However, the creation of a buffer zone raises numerous issues. Ukraine would have to agree to the loss of its territories. Additionally, questions remain about how Western troops on Ukrainian soil would be treated and protected. Would an attack on a NATO soldier in Ukraine be considered an attack on the Alliance itself? For now, answers to these questions remain unclear. During a conversation with the French President during his visit to Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that Poland does not currently plan to engage in such actions. However, this position could change once actual negotiations regarding Kyiv’s future begin. As Poland continues to expand and modernize its armed forces, it may find itself compelled to take specific steps in this matter. Furthermore, a strong and stable Ukraine is in Warsaw’s strategic interest, serving as a buffer between NATO’s eastern flank and the Russian Federation. 

Baltic Sentry and critical infrastructure protection

On 14 January, a meeting of North Atlantic Alliance member states from the Baltic Sea basin took place in Helsinki. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and the Vice-President of the European Commission were also present at the talks. The Helsinki talks were attended by the Prime Ministers of Poland, Estonia, Denmark, Sweden, Chancellor of Germany, the Presidents of Lithuania, Finland and Latvia. The impulse to organise the event was the damage to undersea cables telecommunications and energy cables in the Gulf of Finland in December 2024. 

The most important element of the meeting was the launch of the signalled action code-name’Baltic Sentry«, which aims to improve reconnaissance and deterrence in the Baltic Sea. The joint statement of the parties includes a readiness to create an integrated monitoring platform for regional critical infrastructure. It also announces strong responses to attempts to destroy submarine cables underwater cables and pipelines - an element aimed specifically at the Russian’shadow fleet«. Increased operations are limited in time to 90 days. The number of ships delegated, although media reports speak of 10 vessels. On Baltic Sentry will involve the NATO Standing Ship Group (SNMG 1), which has directed a Dutch frigate there missile frigate, and the NATO Standing Mine Defence Force Team (SNMCMG 1) with a German mine destroyer and a Dutch hydrographic ship. An additional element of the Alliance’s operations is to include aerial maritime surveillance and the use of underwater drones. 

5% of GDP on Defence? Poland Doesn't Say "No"

Poland may support Donald Trump’s idea of increasing NATO member states defence spending to 5% of GDP. In an interview with the „Financial Times”, Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz declared that the Warsaw government could serve as a „transatlantic bridge” between Trump and European members of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Less Lethal Systems Key for Border Protection

Outdated Honker vehicles have been replaced by Żmija reconnaissance vehicles, soldiers are now equipped with smoothbore shotguns, night vision goggles on helmets, and insulated jackets on their shoulders. A revolution in personal soldier equipment is underway, to enhance their safety. Although service remains dangerous and demanding, even small improvements can make a difference.

„Sometimes, all it takes is the sound, the sound of a shotgun being reloaded, for migrants to retreat from the border,” says General Arkadiusz Szkutnik, commander of the 18th Mechanized Division named after General Tadeusz Buk and the commanding officer of the military group in Podlasie protecting the Polish-Belarusian border. Holding one of the shotguns newly issued to his soldiers, he demonstrates the distinct metallic „pump” sound that echoes through one of the containers of the newly built border infrastructure. Non-lethal ammunition has proven to be an effective deterrent against migrants attempting to cross the border.

E5 Defence Ministers in Poland

The defence ministers of the E5 group—comprising Poland, Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, the five European countries with the highest defence spending and support for Ukraine—have pledged continued support for Ukraine. This includes joint initiatives between defence industries, such as joint venture companies. They also expressed their commitment to continuing the work of the Ramstein group. The E5 defence ministers met this week in Poland to discuss these matters. 

„We want to continue this format with the participation of all, led by the United States,” stated Deputy Prime Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz. „No talks about Ukraine without Ukraine. We will always adhere to this principle,” he emphasised on behalf of the five nations« ministers. The ministers also discussed joint military exercises. According to the Minister of Defence, such manoeuvres initiated by the E5 could take place in 2026, „naturally with a significant role for the Alliance.” Funding strategies and the development of defence industries through standardising procedures, simplifying regulations, and conducting joint exercises will be the focus of next year’s meeting in Paris. Special guests at this meeting will include the NATO Secretary General, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and the Defence Commissioner. The Deputy Prime Minister highlighted that the defence industry could become „a driving force for our economies and the relations between our countries.” He emphasised, „2025 must be the year of accelerating the defence industry in Europe.” The E5 group first met in November of last year in Berlin. Following the meeting in Warsaw, the third meeting will be held in Paris. The ministers announced the formation of a working group tasked with developing practical solutions by then.

If you would like to receive this newsletter, please sign up by clicking HERE .

East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.

Aleksander Olech, PhD & Jakub Palowski, Deputy Ed. in Chief, Michał Górski