East Front News #35: Warsaw Appeal signed. How protect Poland from war?

Head of the National Security Bureau for Defence24 on Urgent Changes in Armaments

General (ret.) Dariusz Łukowski, Head of the National Security Bureau, in an interview with Jędrzej Graf, Editor-in-Chief of Defence24.pl, outlines Poland’s most critical challenges in light of Donald Trump’s administration pursuing a „deep reset” policy toward Ukraine and Europe. What changes does the Polish security system require?

„The Ministry of Defence is aware of the problems. However, defence industry companies are overseen by the Ministry of State Assets. Certainly, the defence industry must be reformed – especially in the most urgent area, ammunition production, where we have a »gigantic hole.« We will be buying ammunition practically everywhere it is produced, maybe even in Ukraine, but just not here,” emphasizes Dariusz Łukowski.

Freezing of US military aid to Ukraine

On March 3, the world was informed of the suspension of American military aid to Ukraine. The Donald Trump administration froze the supply of military equipment from the resources of the United States Armed Forces and the arms industry. At the same time, the media reported that this procedure was temporary. According to Donald Trump, the condition that could unblock aid channels would be a demonstration of the Ukrainian side’s real readiness to take part in peace negotiations - according to the administration, this was undermined by the behavior of Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House. 

Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized that reports from the logistics hub in Jasionka confirm the message of the American media. The most serious deficiency for the Ukrainian armed forces, which could have a long-term impact on combat capabilities, would be the long-term disconnection of units from missiles used by anti-aircraft defense. Disconnecting Ukrainians from the communication guaranteed by the Starlink system would be a very significant weakening. The United States supplies up to 40% of the equipment used on the front (the West in general - 70%), and in the case of missiles for air defense systems and artillery ammunition, their contribution is significantly higher and exceeds half of the total consumption. We can expect a resumption of American military aid for the Ukrainian side, because President Zelensky immediately began the reconciliation process within the framework of Twitter diplomacy. 

Head of the Polish Ministry of Defence: You Can't Protect Poland from War for Free

A decision that – I hope – the European Union will make not to count expenditures on transformation, but also on maintaining operational capability, would be a crucial matter. It opens up far-reaching choices, assessed Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. As he added, he supports taking on obligations to protect Poland from war. „You can’t do that for free,” he emphasized.

During the 10th European Congress of Local Governments in Mikołajki, a conversation took place with Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. The meeting was hosted by Defence24 President Piotr Małecki. Among other topics, the discussion touched on suspending the conclusion of an agreement between Ukraine and the United States. The head of the Ministry of National Defense was directly asked whether the decision to break off talks on the American-Ukrainian line might affect our security. „First of all, let’s do our own thing. We have a strategy. The most important thing for us is building strong security for the Polish state. Regardless of emotions,” noted the Vice Prime Minister.

Warsaw Appeal

A meeting of ministers from European Union member states took place in Warsaw, during which the so-called Warsaw Appeal was signed. This document emphasizes the importance of cooperation in the field of cybersecurity and the need to strengthen joint efforts to protect the EU’s cyberspace. 

The Warsaw Appeal is a response to the growing threats in cyberspace, including attacks from third-party states and organized criminal groups. The ministers highlighted the need to enhance cooperation among member states to counter these threats more effectively. The document also underscores the necessity of investing in technological development and improving the skills of cybersecurity specialists. It draws attention to the importance of education and public awareness regarding the safe use of digital technologies. 

Additionally, the Warsaw Appeal calls for the harmonization of cybersecurity regulations across the European Union to facilitate cross-border cooperation and enable more effective responses to cyber incidents. The signing of the Warsaw Appeal aligns with Poland’s activities as part of its presidency of the EU Council, which will last until June 30, 2025. Under the slogan „Security, Europe!” Poland has outlined its priorities for the next six months, focusing on security-related issues, including cybersecurity. This initiative marks another step toward building a resilient and secure cyberspace in Europe, which is crucial for protecting citizens and the economies of member states. 

Europe has a weak hand. Andrew Michta on Ukraine, Zelensky, and Trump

The recent meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky marks a significant deterioration in transatlantic relations, revealing deep fractures in the approach to Ukraine and European security. Dr. Andrew Michta highlights the fundamental weakness of Europe’s military capabilities, emphasising that despite rhetorical commitments, Europe lacks the necessary military assets—forces, ammunition, and command structures—to act independently. The confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in Washington not only exposed the precarious position of Ukraine but also demonstrated the United States« growing reluctance to engage unconditionally in European security affairs. This shift signals a broader transition in U.S. foreign policy, where European nations will likely be treated bilaterally rather than as a unified entity. 

The implications for Poland and Eastern Europe are particularly dire, as the possibility of a weakened NATO or a reduced American presence could lead to increased vulnerability in the region. If Washington continues to distance itself from European security, Poland could face a scenario where negotiations over spheres of influence between Moscow and Western capitals become a reality. This could erode Polish sovereignty, forcing it to make difficult concessions in areas such as defence spending, military autonomy, and energy security. The concern is further exacerbated by Russia’s accelerating military build-up, supported by China, North Korea, and Iran. Contrary to optimistic Western assessments, Dr. Michta warns that Russia could fully restore its ground forces within three years, creating a dangerous power imbalance in Eastern Europe. 

Looking ahead, the strategic consequences of a potential collapse of Ukraine could be catastrophic. The failure of Western deterrence, as seen in past crises such as the invasion of Ukraine, the Hamas attack on Israel, and Iran’s missile strikes, underscores the West’s declining credibility. This, in turn, emboldens adversaries like Russia and China, who perceive a lack of Western resolve in defending its interests. If the U.S. continues to deprioritise European security in favour of a transactional foreign policy approach, Poland and its neighbours may find themselves in an increasingly precarious position, requiring urgent reassessments of their defence strategies and geopolitical alignments.

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East Front News is a weekly newsletter and article on Defence24.com summarizing the past week’s most important events concerning security and the situation in the Central and Eastern Europe region. It includes original opinions and comments, along with key news items significant from a Polish perspective.

Aleksander Olech, PhD & Jakub Palowski, Deputy Ed. in Chief, Michał Górski